Archive for June 13, 2011

We all read the statistics every week documenting the meteoric new growth areas of the Internet, and they are impressive:

Online video is exploding, with annual user growth of more than 45 percent. Mobile-device time spent increased 28 percent last year – with average smartphone time spent doubling. And social networks are now used by 90 percent of U.S. Internet users – for an average of more than four hours a month.

None of this is a newsflash. Every venture capitalist, Web publisher, and digital marketer is hyper-aware of these three trends.

But what’s happening to the rest of the Web?

The Web Is Shrinking. Really.

When you take these three growth areas out of the picture, the size of the hole left behind is staggering: the rest of the Web – the tried and true core that we thought would have limitless growth – is already shrinking.

Here are the facts:

When you exclude just Facebook from the rest of the Web, consumption in terms of minutes of use shrank by nearly nine percent between March 2010 and March 2011, according to data from comScore. And, even when you include Facebook usage, total non-mobile Internet consumption still dropped three percent over the same period.

We’ve known that social is growing lightning fast – notably, Facebook consumption, which grew by 69 percent – but now it’s clear that Facebook is not growing in addition to the Web. Rather, it’s actually taking consumption away from the publishers who compete on the rest of the Web.

And just what is the rest of the Web?

I have been calling it the “document Web,” based on how Google and other Web architectures view its pages as documents, linked together. But increasingly, it might as well be called the “searchable Web” since it’s accessed predominantly as a reference, and navigated primarily via search.

And it’s becoming less relevant.

In the last year, Facebook’s share of users’ time online grew from one out of every 13 minutes of use nationwide, to one out of every eight. In aggregate, that means the document Web was down more than half a billion hours of use (that’s more than 800 lifetimes) this March versus last March. And in financial terms, that represents a lost opportunity of $2.2 billion in advertising inventory that didn’t exist this year.

The Creation of a New, Connected Web

The change in the Web’s direction is a clear indication to me that we aren’t just in the midst of a boom for new interaction modes, but rather in a generational overhaul of the Internet.

What replaces the declining searchable Web is a new and “fully connected” digital life. You may have heard this before. After all, the promise of the Web was to connect pages with hyperlinks. Well, this time, “connected” means much more. It means the Web connects us, as people, to each one of the individuals online; and those connections, ultimately, extend from one of us to all of us.

Just as significantly, this all happens in real time, and at nearly all times.

And here’s what’s different when you connect people, as opposed to pages: Now, the Web knows who we are (identity), is with us at all times wherever we go (mobile), threads our relationships with others (social), and delivers meaningful experiences beyond just text and graphics (video).

The connected, social Web is alive, moving, proactive, and personal, while the document Web is just an artifact – suited as a universal reference, but hardly a personal experience.

The Social Web Versus the Searchable Web

Analytical explanations – increasing smartphone penetration, bandwidth availability, and technology sophistication – fill in some of the gaps as we try to understand this sea change, but they fall short.

Something larger is afoot, and it’s not about science or technology. Rather, as human beings, we have changed how we fit the Internet into our lives.

And the nature of the Web is changing to match. The old searchable Web is crashing; while the new connected, social Web is lifting off.

The implications for publishers are massive.

The last decade has been defined by the rise of Google as the nearly limitless supplier of traffic to digital media properties. And so a generation of digital media publishers developed and followed the same playbook: create lots of content around top keywords, engineer for search engine optimization (SEO) and expand the surface area in search engines to reach more users. The objective was to catch visitors in their net; expand reach – as measured by ComScore – look more impressive to advertisers and capture more demand.

The landscape is changing, and fast.

SEO’s strategic value is quickly fading as Google’s growth slows and its prominence in distribution slides away. In its place, Facebook has become the wiring hub of the connected Web – a new “home base” alternative to Google’s dominance of the last decade. Facebook began receiving as many visits as Google in March 2010, and already garners more than three times as many minutes as Google each month from users, according to comScore. Looking ahead, the best projections of U.S. online reach indicate that Facebook will surpass Google on that metric in less than a year, too.

And with this change, the nature of the relationship between users and publishers is being altered fundamentally – and perhaps forever.

Search offers a utility relationship, connecting users to content for the briefest of transactions; typically, it provokes users to just one pageview so they can find a piece of information, and then they move on.

But social discovery builds a relationship. Leveraging social endorsements and an environment of serendipitous discovery, consumers meet publishers in a meaningful context. As a result, the relationship that forms is stronger – and, more importantly for publishers, it’s branded.

Unlike the ecosystem set up by Google, where the search engine ironically intermediates between users and the objects of their queries (so that users reinforce their loyalty to Google, far more than to the publisher), in the world of social publishing, the Facebook hub enables a direct, if constrained, relationship between users and media brands.

The results – at least for my own company, Wetpaint – are that social media brings more qualified eyeballs and retains them. People who come via social media stay longer on the first visit; and they are more likely to come back sooner and more frequently. Overall, our visitors from social networks have a relationship that’s several times stronger – and several times as valuable when measured in engagement, pageviews, and revenues – than the relationships people form when then arrive through search.

The Human Connection

But it’s not just a change in mechanics. It’s a change in our human relationships.

Lewis D’Vorkin, the Chief Product Officer at Forbes, speaks of it when he and Alex Knapp talk about “live” media, quantum entanglement and mutually rewarding relationships that bind authors and readers on the new connected Web. It’s a sense of the Web moving from static published reference to living digital companion.

But there’s even more, and this vast change foreshadows bigger and better impacts on our lives. The greatest innovators in social media are driving exactly along that edge today. As one friend commented recently on the full potential of connected lives, by being joined more closely together, we can increase empathy and meaning, while decreasing isolation.

Toward a Fully Connected Future

Admittedly, we’re early in the replacement cycle when it comes to the connected Web. Even for strong connected Web performers like Huffington Post, Wetpaint, and others, the sum total of traffic from Facebook, Twitter, video, and mobile may add up to only half the total, or less.

But the trend has tipped, and with that tip has come both the business necessity and the human impact potential of elevating the relationship.

As the document Web of old shrinks, the new connected Web expands and delivers experiences that make our time online more effective, efficient, and enjoyable.

And that changes the role of companies on the Web from mere content publishers or providers to truly connected digital partners for real people.

By Ben Elowitz

Everyone’s chasing Facebook “Likes”, but what does that verb really mean?

“Within retail, each new fan acquired will drive an additional 20 visits to a retailer’s websites,” according to Hitwise analyst Robin Goad.

Hitwise, which measures website hits from traffic data supplied by ISPs counting eight million UK customers (methodology), has combined data from its Shopping and Classifieds category with data from the social marketing monitor Techlightenment.

“(We) benchmarked visits to those websites against the number of fans those brands had on their Facebook page,” Goad writes.

The findings also show web users are 54 percent more likely to actively search for a retailer website following a Facebook visit.

By Robert Andrews

The social media ROI discussion is heating up with a spate of new research drawing connections between social media, brand perceptions, and purchase behavior. That includes a new study released earlier this week by Knowledge Networks and MediaPost’s very own Center for Media Research, showing that the number of Americans who say their brand consumption choices are influenced by social media has increased substantially in the last year.

According to the second wave of the KN-CMR study, titled “The Faces of Social Media,” 38 million U.S. adults ages 18-80 (or 12% of the total population) say they discover new products and brands or refer to social media before making purchase decisions. That’s up 14% from 33.3 million just six months ago. This includes 23.1 million who say they discover new brands or products through social media, up 22% from 18.9 million in 2010, and 22.5 million who use social media to learn about unfamiliar brands or products, up 9% from 20.6 million last year.

What’s more, 17.8 million say social media has “strongly influenced” their purchase decisions, up 19% from 15 million in 2010, and 15.1 million say they make sure to refer to social media before making a purchase decision, up 29% from 11.7 million last year.

As might be expected, the KN-CMR study also shows a big increase in mobile social activity. Among teens and adults who use social media, the subset who have accessed social media via mobile devices soared from 28% to 40% of the total (meaning about 80 million this year). And there is significant overlap with consumer activity: within the mobile-social group, 27% use social media to compare or check prices, 24% refer to social media for reviews, and 16% use social media to find coupons, discounts, or special offers for local businesses.

Coining a hip new term for social media, “SoMe,” Patricia Graham, chief strategy officer Knowledge Networks, observed: “Tying consumer interactions back to brands and purchase decisions is essential for marketers, in social media no less than any other platform. While we have seen a dramatic rise in key metrics that quantify SoMe’s influence, we also have observed a wide variation of influence at the category level. The Faces of Social Media gives brands the ability to not only understand, but also act on that influence.”

“The on-the-go consumer is becoming more mobile in their social media usage,” said Chuck Martin, Director of the Center for Media Research at MediaPost Communications. “This move to mobility combined with the increasing influence of social media during the purchase process has great implications for marketers, who will have to look at location as well as which product purchases are most affected.”

The complex issue of ROI remains one of the big question marks (and hindrances to growth) hanging over social media. As noted, however, the last couple months have seen a number of promising studies grappling with ROI and measurement generally. For example, Ogilvy and ChatThreads conducted a “Integrated Social Media Sales Impact” study from January-May of this year, tracking brand exposure for 404 individuals through ChatThreads’ BrandEncounter platform. In the study, which they presented to the ARF’s Audience Measurement conference earlier this week, Ogilvy and ChatThreads looked at purchases by quick service restaurant customers patronizing KFC, McDonalds, Subway, Taco Bell and Wendy’s; the customers were sorted by their degree of exposure to social media advertising for the QSR brand in question, as well as their exposure to advertising delivered through other channels. And last month Buddy Media released a study titled “Strategies For Effective Facebook Wall Posts: A Statistical Review,” offering some tentative metrics for social media success in that specific venue.

In stalled economy, people banking on business networking site;Twitter followers more brand loyal than Facebook fans

CHICAGO – Performics, the performance marketing agency owned by Publicis Groupe, today released results from “S-Net (The Impact of Social Media),” a report from ROI Research Inc. (www.roiresearch.com) sponsored by Performics. According to the survey of 2,997 active social networkers, 59 percent of respondents said it is important to have a LinkedIn account, more than any other social network.

Furthermore, of the study respondents with an active LinkedIn account, 50 percent visit the site at least weekly and 20 percent visit the site at least daily. While this new social media study shows the frequency of LinkedIn visits decreasing since the height of the recession in 2010 (67 percent weekly and 22 percent daily visits), the percentage of people who deem LinkedIn the most important social networking site jumped dramatically from 41 percent last year to 59 percent this year.

“We may not necessarily be in a double-dip recession, but individuals have embraced social networking as a means to actively manage their personal visibility in the global economy.” said Daina Middleton, CEO of Performics. “Factors including LinkedIn’s recent IPO announcement, the May uptick in national unemployment and signs of a slowed market certainly contribute to LinkedIn’s attractiveness among social networkers.”

The study also reveals how technology combined with social networks have changed the way people behave, how companies and brands can capitalize on new social media marketing opportunities. It specifically inquired about the purchase process for different types of products and in relation to other media channels. Some of the most astounding findings of the study include:

• People recommend companies and buy products they follow: among active Twitter users who follow at least one company: 59 percent are more likely to recommend a company they follow, and 58 percent are more likely to buy a product they follow

• Comparison shopping is prevalent: 59 percent use social networks to compare prices; 56 percent do so to talk about sales or specials

• People are split about getting and giving advice: Half of respondents use social networks to give (50 percent) and get (50 percent) advice about products/services, companies or brands on social networking sites

• Personal referrals wield power: 60 percent are at least somewhat likely to take action when a friend posts something about a product/service, company or brand

“The most effective marketers continue to adopt performance marketing strategies that engage “participants” in every channel of their media mix – across platforms, devices and screens,” adds Middleton. “In this day and age, participants is a much more accurate description for brand constituents than consumers as they are actively dictating what, where and how they interact with any company or product. Nowhere is this more prevalent than with social media, so brands that cede some control to embrace this reality have tremendous opportunities to succeed.”

The study’s findings related to brand and company interaction illustrate this power shift:

• Fifty-three percent frequently or occasionally use social networks to provide feedback to a brand or retailer

• Fifty-two percent agreed that people can influence business decisions made by companies, brands and retailers by voicing opinions on social networking sites

• Thirty-four percent reported that interacting with a brand or company on social networks made them more aware of their eco-friendly efforts

“The best part about this fundamental power shift is how it motivates people to interact with the brands and companies they follow. Active social networkers report a desire for regular interaction with them,” said Scott Haiges, president of ROI Research. “In fact, 53 percent said products, services or companies should communicate with fans on social networking sites at least once per week.”

Performics and ROI Research this summer will release “vertical reports” that highlight findings specific to various industries including apparel, automotive, entertainment, financial services, travel and others. The vertical reports will benchmark how people use social networking sites to get advice on what to purchase, how they give advice on companies/products through social networks and their likelihood to post vertical specific content.

From restaurant reservations to TV show selection, who needs “experts” in a world of opinionated Facebook friends? Turns out — the majority of consumers, according to new research from social-sharing platform Meebo.

Indeed, rather than getting content recommendations from their online social circles, a full 53% of survey respondents said they seek advice from knowledgeable strangers, or “everyday experts” as Meebo calls them.

Why? One’s “friends” often lack the inside dope on specialized information like good sushi in Sarasota, Florida, or the best “Braveheart” mashups online.

“Web discovery today largely happens through people or influencers we already know, but people are expressing frustration about the inability to find relevant content from their social circles,” said Seth Sternberg, Meebo’s co-founder and CEO.

“As more discovery solutions are developed, ‘everyday experts’ will gradually surface within specific interest areas and become important advocates in the future,” Sternberg predicts.

This is not to say that social graphs will increasingly lose ground to independent experts. On the contrary, the findings suggest that consumers are prone to “friending” experts with whom they share a common interest. According to Meebo, nearly half — 48% — of respondents expressed an interest in aligning with like-minded experts.

Meanwhile, more than one-third of consumers — 38% — turn to anonymous sources for product and service recommendations, Meebo found.

When narrowed down to specific interests or hobbies, nearly half of the people are interested in connecting with everyday experts over those who they know.

When looking for information about a shared hobby or interest, 39% of people said they would turn to strangers for content recommendations, whereas only 28% would look to those with whom they have existing relationships.

Specifically, 41% of people said they would prefer to connect with “everyday experts” on travel information, whereas only 17% would turn to people they already know. Also, 43% said they would turn to unknowns for recipes or cooking-related content, while only 22% would connect with people they know.

Meanwhile, while 68% of people are experts and are passionate about something, according to a recent Forrester Groundswell study, connecting to those people is not believed to be easy. Indeed, according to Meebo, only 22% of people think it’s easy to connect online to people with whom they share a common interest.

Conducted in partnership with Erica Rutt+ Associates, Meebo says its research study is nationally representative.

For the study, Meebo said it sampled 1,473 people, including populations across gender, ethnicity, household income, location, education level and age.